Bitcoin Is A Leading Indicator Of The Coronavirus Outbreak

The number of cases of coronavirus has risen to more than 2,700 in mainland China. Photo by Betsy JolesGetty Images

I have maintained for a long time now that China is a very significant driver of bitcoin (BTC). I have also maintained that bitcoin is a leading indicator of troubles in China because it is a “safe haven asset” and “flight capital.”

I have repeated the assertion that you can’t easily fly out of a country with cash or gold and for countries with capital controls BTC is the only way to get out of town with significant amounts of capital.

Like it or not, the “people” are never the first to know when trouble is brewing. That is the whole reason “insider information” is illegal to act upon. The first to know in these emergency situations are the first to act.

So if you were a rich Chinese person and you heard about this outbreak, what would you do? You would certainly consider packing the family off for a bit of a holiday. You might stick around to look after the business, but you would definitely get your loved ones out. You see this in the Riviera. The Russian oligarchs keep their families safe in France while they ply their trade in Moscow. Who would not do the same in that situation?

However, you have to fund a long stay abroad and the best way to go, unless you are very well prepared, is to grab some bitcoin because once you have those crypto wallet keys the money is anywhere you want it. You might also buy it as a hedge against the worst.

The coronavirus outbreaks started in early December, so let’s take a look at bitcoin:

Bitcoin's movement since the Coronavirus outbreak in DecwemberCredit: ADVFN

Remember we are not looking to the future, we are looking to the past, a past where things are happening before we know about them. Bitcoin’s recent rally aligns with the assumption that Chinese demand for bitcoin because of coronavirus has driven the price.

However, what are we looking for? We are looking for an early signal that things are going to blow over or get worse and I believe you can look at bitcoin for that “temperature.” As such, the chart suggests the situation is stabilizing, but of course it cannot predict the future, only the current situation.

This is what we are looking for in the Bitcoin chartCredit: ADVFN

With the media screaming “plague” at the top of its toxic voice, the stock market could well take a tumble, but unless BTC shoots above $10,000 and heads for the moon I will be holding and looking to buy.

I wrote a fiction novel about global plague called The First Horseman so I’m pre-sensitized to think the worse, but people on the ground will know what is really going on and will react like rational economic actors; if they think the game is up the word will spread far faster than the infection and BTC is the instrument that will react sharply and send up the “‘SELL” flare and have me pulling up my drawbridge.

I think we are going to get a buying opportunity in the market, not a global catastrophe, but that’s simply a barely informed guess. Instead I believe bitcoin will provide early warning of good or bad news and we will have a reasonably clear picture one way or the other within ten days.